信息技术应用渗透的阈值特征及实证检验——基于新兴古典经济学框架的分析

The Threshold Characters of Information Technology Diffusion and Its Empirical Examination——An Analysis Based on New Classical Economic Framework

建立了一个信息技术应用渗透与分工演进伴随进行的一般动态均衡模型,分析信息技术应用的渗透规律。理论和实证分析表明,信息技术应用渗透存在阈值特征,只有当其对交易效率的作用效果高于由经济初始交易效率决定的阈值时,信息技术应用渗透才会启动。经济初始交易效率越高,信息技术应用启动所需达到的阈值越高。建议从提高信息技术的实际应用效益和提高信息技术部门本身的生产服务效率等方面入手来释放人工智能等新一代信息技术推动经济增长的潜力。

This paper studies the property of information technology(IT) diffusion in an economy with spontaneous evolution of division of labor.The general dynamic equilibrium analysis reveals that the penetration of IT innovations shows threshold characters.Only when its actual effects on transaction efficiency achieves the level determined by the initial transaction efficiency of economy,will IT innovations penetration begin.The theoretical inferences are evidenced by the empirical analysis on China’s provincial information sector data.This paper suggests to realize the potentials of new generation of IT innovations such as artificial intelligence(AI) from enhancing its actual effects on transaction efficiency and decreasing its applications costs by improving the production and service efficiency of IT innovation sector.