国有资本划转养老保险基金与劳动力长期供给

State-owned Capital Allocation to Pension Fund and Long-term Labor Supply

国有资本划转养老保险基金通过“挤占公共财政收入”和“放松个人预算约束”两条路径影响劳动力供给。本文构建了一个包含国有资本划转、内生生育率和教育投入的世代交叠模型,考察划转对劳动力供给的长期影响。研究发现,与不划转相比,划转将降低劳动力数量和提高劳动力质量,但对劳动力总供给的影响不确定,它不仅取决于父母对子女数量和质量的相对重视程度,而且依赖于划转之后养老保险政策工具的选择,即降低养老保险缴费率还是提高养老金替代率。若选择降低缴费率,当父母相对很重视子女质量时,划转后劳动力总供给与划转率呈倒“U”型变化关系;当父母逐渐重视子女数量时,二者呈正向变化关系。若选择提高养老金替代率,无论父母对子女数量和质量的相对重视程度如何,划转后劳动力总供给与划转率都呈反向变化关系。从促进劳动力供给增长的角度看,划转的同时降低缴费率,并引导父母同等重视子女数量和质量,将有助于实现养老保险制度与劳动力市场的良性互动发展。

As ageing increases,the financial sustainability of the basic pension system in China is facing severe challenges.Both the proportion and the total number of working-age individuals are shrinking and the labor participation rate is also decreasing,leading to a decline in the labor supply.Against this background,the impact of the pension system reform on the labor supply has received high attention.The state-owned capital allocation to the pension fund can affect the labor supply through two channels.First,allocation squeezes public revenue.Under an unchanged fiscal expenditure structure,public education expenditure will decrease correspondingly.If public and private education expenditure are substitutive,parents will increasingly invest in private education for their children.The resulting economic pressure will inhibit their fertility propensity,leading to a decrease in the labor force.Second,pension fund revenue will increase,which may reduce the contribution rate or increase the pension replacement rate and loosen personal budget constraints.This will encourage parents to have children and increase private education investment,which promotes a rising labor force.The final net effect depends on the magnitude of the above two factors.To analyze the long-term effect on the labor supply of the state-owned capital allocation to the pension fund,we establish an overlapping generation model that includes the state-owned capital allocation,endogenous fertility rate,and educational investment.The results show that the allocation will reduce the quantity of the labor force but improve its quality,although the impact on the total labor supply is uncertain,as this depends not only on the relative importance parents attach to the quantity and quality of children,but also on the choice of pension policy tools in the post-allocation period.There are basically two options:to decrease the contribution rate or increase the pension replacement rate.If the contribution rate is decreased,the total labor supply and allocation rate will have an inverted“U”-shaped relationship:when parents pay much more attention to the quality of their children,the two become positively related as parents allocate greater value to the quantity of their children.If the pension replacement rate is increased,regardless of the relative importance parents attach to the quantity and quality of children,the total labor supply and the allocation rate are always negatively related.This paper has three policy implications.First,against the background of an increasing shortage in the labor supply,the establishment of a“labor friendly”state-owned capital allocation policy coordinated with the labor supply is important to promote sustainable economic and social development.Second,transforming the concept of population development based on controlling the number of children during the family-planning period,guiding parents to pay equal attention to the quantity and quality of their children,and providing relevant policies to alleviate fertility pressure will help to realize appropriate fertility levels.Third,scientifically choosing an appropriate pension policy tool will help to promote a positive interaction between the pension system and the macro economy.This paper makes three contributions.First,in terms of rationale,we emphasize that the allocation policy should focus not only on filling the pension fund gap,but also on its effects on important macroeconomic variables.Second,in terms of method,we introduce the economic mechanism of allocation into the framework of endogenous population growth.From the perspective of the replacement relationship between birth quantity and quality and methods of filling the pension fund gap,we explore the impact of state-owned capital allocation on the labor supply.Third,in terms of conclusions,by comparing and analyzing the changes in labor supply with different policy tools,we provide a theoretical foundation for reducing the contribution rate while performing the allocation,and also make suggestions for improving the labor friendly state-owned capital allocation policy.