2019年5月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, May 2019

目的评估2019年5月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上,预计5月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较4月有所上升,可能以水痘、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、感染性腹泻等事件为主。全国手足口病将进入流行高峰期。登革热将继续出现境外输入病例,广东、浙江、海南和云南等高风险地区存在出现本地病例的可能,并可能出现小规模暴发疫情。人感染禽流感疫情呈低发态势,仍可能继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感或其他亚型动物流感病毒散发病例。食物中毒即将进入高发期,细菌性食物中毒及毒蘑菇中毒将增加。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生,但输入我国的风险低。结论需要对手足口病予以重点关注,对登革热、人感染禽流感、食物中毒、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in May 2019.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video terminal.Results Generally speaking,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in May than in April,2019,which might be mainly the events of varicella,hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD),mumps and infectious diarrhea.The incidence of HFMD would gradually become higher to reach peak.Imported cases of dengue fever from other countries might still be found,and indigenous cases and small outbreaks of dengue fever might occur in high risk areas such as Guangdong,Zhejiang,Hainan,and Yunnan provinces.The activity of human infection with avian influenza virus would be low;however,the sporadic cases of human infections with avian influenza A(H7 N9)virus and other subtype viruses of animal influenza might continue to occur.More food poisoning might occur,and the incidence of food poisoning caused by bacterial pathogens or poisonous mushrooms would increase.Ebola virus disease(EVD)outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo will continue;however,the risk of the spread to China is low.Conclusion Close attention should be paid to the incidence of HFMD,and general attention should be paid to dengue fever,human infection with avian influenza virus,food poisoning and EVD in Democratic Republic of Congo.