Monte Carlo模拟对面制品中铝膳食暴露风险的概率评估

Probability Assessment of Dietary Exposure Risk to Aluminum in Flour Foods by Monte Carlo Simulation

结合常见市售面制品中铝的残留量监测结果,采用Crystal Ball软件建立非参数概率评估模型,对居民面制品来源的铝膳食暴露量进行了初步评估。结果表明,所有面制品样品的铝残留量均值为15.5 mg/kg,最高检出值为1437.7 mg/kg,超标率为8.5%。不同类别面制品中铝的残留量差异具有统计学意义(p<0.05),以油炸类面制品的铝残留量均值最高,为22.7 mg/kg。不同年龄人群面制品来源的铝膳食日暴露量的P99百分位数分别为青少年(6~17岁):男性103.89/女性116.47μg/(kg·d);青年(18~44岁):男性66.36/女性79.36μg/(kg·d);中年(45~59岁):男性68.23/女性72.41μg/(kg·d);老年(≥60岁):男性73.80/女性78.89μg/(kg·d),低于每日可耐受摄入量(ADI)285.7μg/(kg·d),风险指数最大值为0.41,小于1。面制品来源的铝膳食暴露风险在可接受范围内,普通居民通过面制品摄入铝的健康风险较低。

Based on the monitoring results of aluminum residues in sale flour foods,a nonparametric probability assessment model was established using Crystal Ball software,and then the level of residents’ aluminum dietary exposure was preliminarily evaluated. The results showed that the average and maximum content of aluminum residues in flour foods was 15.5 mg/kg and 1437.7 mg/kg,and the over standard rate was 8.5%. The contents of aluminum residues varied significantly among different types of flour foods(p<0.05),while the fried flour foods had the highest content of aluminum residues(22.7 mg/kg). The daily exposure to aluminum from flour foods in different age groups,adolescent(6~17 years old),youth(18~44 years old),middle-aged(45~59 years old),elderly(more than 60 years old)was male 103.89/female 116.47,male 66.36/female 79.36,male 68.23/female 72.41,male 73.80/female 78.89 μg/(kg·d)at the 99 th percentile,which was lower than that of ADI(Acceptable daily intake)285.7 μg/(kg·d). The maximum hazard quotient(HQ)of aluminum dietary exposure from flour foods was 0.41 and less than 1.The risk of aluminum dietary exposure from flour foods was acceptable,and there was a low possibility of health risks caused by daily exposure to aluminum from flour foods.