摘要
针对武器装备的贮存可靠性评估问题,首先分析了当前装备贮存检测数据的特点;然后,应用贝叶斯推断提出了一种利用贮存期间检测数据来对指数型单元贮存效果实现合理评估的方法。算例设计和大量仿真验证的结果表明:该方法的评估结果是令人满意的,且克服了传统贮存试验要求大量样本数据的弊端,具有较高的实际应用价值。
In order to analyze the problem of reliability in the long-term storage of weapon equipments,Firstly,the characteristics of the practical storing test data are analyzed.Then,through Bayesian approach a method for estimating the storage effect of the exponential component is proposed by utilizing the test results during the actual storage period.As revealed in the example design and numerous results of simulation verification,the proposed estimation method brings satisfying results and overcomes the shortcoming of conventional storage test in its demand for a large number of samples.And thus its practical value for application is proved.
作者
李婧
朱晓军
李华
LI Jing;ZHU Xiao-jun;LI Hua(Dept. of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval Univ. of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China;College of Naval Architecture & Ocean Engineering,Naval Univ. of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China;College of Weaponry Engineering,Naval Univ. of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)
出处
《海军工程大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第3期17-22,共6页
Journal of Naval University of Engineering
基金
国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71801220)
关键词
指数分布
贮存寿命
贮存效果评估
贝叶斯推断
exponential distribution
storage life
storage effect evaluation
Bayesian inference
