刑事个案犯罪信息研判的思维方法

Discussion on the Thinking Method of Researching and Judging Criminal Single Case Information

在刑事个案的犯罪侦查中,为了最终发现、查明和确认犯罪事实,确定犯罪嫌疑人,侦查人员必须进行刑事个案犯罪信息研判。刑事个案犯罪信息研判的基本思维模式就是所谓的E1-H-E2法,即从现有案情事实材料中得出侦查假说,再将侦查假说诉诸其它案情事实进行检验的方法,它体现了侦查思维"以事实为依据"的基本精神。侦查假说是刑事个案犯罪信息研判的核心因素,在许多方面与科学假说不同,可以根据不同标准进行不同的分类。从现有案情事实材料得出侦查假说需要在收集和分析案情事实的基础上,遵守一些合理性原则才能实现。而从侦查假说再到案情事实需要经历证伪、确证、选择和证明四个阶段。每个阶段都需要遵守各自的合理性原则并且运用各自的推理模式。

In order to find,certify and verify criminal evidences and thus ascertain suspicious,investigator must research and judge criminal single case information.The basical thinking pattern is so-called the method of E1--H--E2,which obtains a certain invetigational hypothesis from case evidences in existence and then resors the invetigational hypothesis to other case evidences to testify itself.Therefore,it enbodies the fundamental spirit of regardinging evidences as its basis.Invetigational hypothesis is core factor of reserching and judging criminal single case information,is different from scientific hypothesis,and can be divided into distinct kinds by virtue of distinct standards.Tansfering from case evidences in existence to invetigational hypothesis is based on collecting and alysizing case evidences and consequently needs to abide by some reasonable principles.On the other hand,tansfering from invetigational hypothesis to case evidences is said to undergo such four stages as fasification,confirmation,selection and verification.All the four stages are necessary to comply with respective reasonable principles and wield respective models of inference.