基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究

Study on calculation method of multi-level domino effect of accident based on Bayesian network

为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。

In order to analyze the accident risk more reasonably, a calculation method and its calculation procedure of multi-level domino effect based on Bayesian network were proposed. In addition, the multi-level domino effect of work safety accidents were quantitatively analyzed from the perspectives of individual risk and social risk. Taking two gasoline tank areas of an enterprise as examples, the domino effect of its work safety accidents were quantitatively calculated by using the above method. Furthermore, the calculation results were compared with those without considering the domino effect and only considering the single-level domino effect. The results showed that the multi-level domino effect and the synergistic effect between accidents could be considered at the same time by the calculation method based on Bayesian network. It can make the calculation results of individual risk and social risk closer to the actual situation.