养老服务投入对经济发展的影响研究——基于PPP模式的分析

The Impact of Old-Age Service Investment on Economic Development——Based on PPP Mode

文章聚焦于政府和社会资本合作(PPP)模式,运用系统GMM估计考察了养老服务中政府投入和社会资本投入对经济发展的影响。研究发现:第一,养老服务业中的政府投入和社会资本投入均对经济发展具有积极的促进作用,政府投入的经济发展贡献更显著,社会资本投入对经济发展影响的显著性较弱。第二,无论是政府投入还是社会资本投入,对中部、西部地区的经济发展促进作用更显著,但东部、东北地区的养老服务投入却并未对经济发展产生显著影响。未来应在养老服务业中建立长效的与经济发展相关的投入机制,调整政府和社会资本投入的方式和区域分布结构,以实现养老服务作为大健康产业对经济发展的助推作用。

This article focuses on the input of old-age services under the public and private partnership(PPP)model, using the system GMM to estimate the panel data from 2007 to 2016, and examining the government investment and private sector investment in the old-age service. The findings are as following: Firstly, public and private sector investment in the old-age service have a positive effect on economic development. The contribution of the government’s investment in the old-age service is more significant, and the impact of private sector investment on economic development is weak. What’s more, the study further estimates the regional heterogeneity of economic development contribution and finds that public and private investments in the central and western regions have more obvious effect on the economic development, but the investment in the eastern and northeast regions has no significant impact on economic development. In the future, we should establish a longterm investment mechanism related to economic development in the old-age service industry and adjust public and private investment methods and regional distribution structure so as to make the old-age service promote the economic development as the Great-Health Industry.