基于层次分析-可拓模型的公路隧道施工风险评估

Risk Assessment of High way Tunnel Construction Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Extension Model

公路隧道施工存在的风险因素较多、较为复杂,运用科学的方法对公路隧道施工风险进行评估,具有一定的现实意义.首先,从地质条件、开挖断面等四个方面对风险进行划分,建立公路隧道施工风险评估指标体系.其次,运用层次分析法确定各评估指标权重,基于该权重建立层次分析-可拓模型,综合考虑公路隧道施工风险发生的概率及带来的损失,将风险定级.最后,结合湖南地区某公路隧道工程进行实例分析,得出地质条件风险、开挖断面风险、隧洞施工风险、洞口工程风险分别为高、较高、中等、较高,总体风险为较高的结论.在项目实施过程中,风险的现场调研情况与评估结果较为接近,证明了方法可行.运用层次分析-可拓模型对公路隧道施工风险评估是一种新的尝试,能够为同类问题的研究提供借鉴.

There are many and complicated risk factors in the construction of highway tunnel.It is of practical significance to evaluate the construction risk of highway tunnel with scientific methods.Firstly, the paper divides the risks from four aspects, such as geological conditions and excavation section, and establishes the risk assessment index system of highway tunnel construction.Secondly, the AHP is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index.Based on the weight, the AHP-Extension model is established, and the risk is graded by considering the probability of highway tunnel construction risk and the loss.Finally, combined with an example of a highway tunnel project in Hunan Province, it is concluded that the risk of geological conditions, excavation section, tunnel construction and entrance engineering are high, higher and highest, and the overall risk is higher.In the process of project implementation,the risk field investigation is close to the evaluation results, which proves that the method is feasible. Applying AHP-Extension Model to the risk assessment of highway tunnel construction is a new attempt, which can provide reference for similar problems.