基于KMV模型的我国上市民营企业信用风险实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk of Listed Private Enterprises in China Based on KMV Model

随着我国供给侧结构性改革的不断深入,民营经济在推动社会主义市场经济发展过程中发挥出关键作用,而由民营企业信用风险偏高导致的企业融资难、融资贵问题也更加突出。以民营企业融资难为背景,利用KMV模型从违约距离角度评估我国民营企业信用风险,用MATLAB、Excel等软件求解违约概率,并与国有企业违约概率进行对比分析,结合实际探究民营企业信用风险大小,然后选用企业相关成长能力指标与违约距离进行多元线性回归,探究其显著性大小。最后,根据实证分析结果给出民营企业防控信用风险的相关建议。

With the deepening of supply-side structural reform in China, private economy plays a key role in the process of promoting the development of socialist market economy. However, the difficulty of financing and the problem of expensive financing caused by the high credit risk of private enterprises are becoming more and more prominent. Based on the background of financing difficulty of private enterprises, this paper uses KMV model to evaluate the credit risk of private enterprises in China, uses MATLAB, Excel and other software to solve the probability of default, compares it with the probability of default of state-owned enterprises, explores the credit risk of private enterprises in combination with the actual situation, and then chooses the index of enterprise growth ability and the distance of default. Multivariate linear regression was used to explore its significance. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, this paper gives some suggestions for private enterprises to prevent and control credit risk.