农产品电商发展对农业转型升级的倒逼效应——基于省际静态与动态面板数据的实证分析

Anti-driving Effect of Developing Agricultural Products E-commerce on Transformation and Upgrading of Agricultural:Empirical Analysis on the Provincial Static and Dynamic Panel Data

基于产业关联理论指出农产品电商发展会倒逼农业转型升级,并从技术革命、人力资本积累与规模经营3个角度进一步分析倒逼效应的发生机制。基于此,结合我国2010—2016年的省际面板数据,建立静态与动态面板数据模型对理论假设进行检验与测量。结果表明:农产品电商对农业转型升级的倒逼效应显著但力度偏小;农业转型升级是一个连续的动态的调整过程;当前主导我国农业发展的要素禀赋结构在变迁。

Based on the theory of industrial association,this paper proposes the view that developing the e-commerce of agricultural products will force the transformation and upgrading of agriculture.We further analyze the occurrence mechanism of this effect from the perspective of technological revolution,human capital accumulation and scale management.On this basis,a static and dynamic panel data model is established to test and measure the theoretical assumptions based on the provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2016.Results show that the e-commerce of agricultural products has a significant negative effect on agricultural transformation and upgrading although the intensity is small;China’s agricultural transformation and upgrading has strong path-dependent characteristics;Currently,the motivation for China’s agricultural transformation and upgrading is changing,and technological and cultural factors such as technological progress and human capital accumulation are growing in significance while the influence of government investment and natural endowment is weakening.