中国粮食种植面积能对市场作出正确响应吗?——基于面板联立方程的实证

Can China’s Grain Acreage Respond Correctly to Market Mechanism?An empirical Study Based on Panel Simultaneous Equations

构建反映粮食种植面积变化的动态模型,将2004—2016年31个省区按照粮食主产区和非主产区进行样本分组,运用面板联立方程分析价格、风险、成本和需求等市场因素对粮食种植面积的影响。研究表明,主产区粮食生产价格无法对粮食种植面积的变化作出响应,粮食种植面积也没有对价格波动作出正确响应,市场机制尚无法有效发挥对主产区粮食种植行为的调节作用。在受到外部冲击后,市场自发的调节会导致主产区粮食生产价格和粮食种植面积偏离均衡状态。非主产区粮食市场机制更加完善,在受到外部冲击后,市场自发的调节可以使粮食生产价格和粮食种植面积恢复到均衡状态。最后提出应从完善主产区市场机制和保障粮农收益两方面推进粮食供给侧改革。

This paper constructed a conceptual model reflecting the change of grain planting area.Then,data from 2004 to 2016 of 31 provinces and regions were chosen and grouped according to whether the data were collected from the main grain-producing areas or not.The panel simultaneous equation technique was used to compare and analyze the impact of market factors such as price,risk,cost and demand on grain planting area.Finally,the effect of various variables on grain planting area was simulated.The research shows that the grain production price in the main producing areas can not respond to the change of grain planting area,and the grain planting area does not respond correctly to price fluctuations.Meanwhile,the market mechanism cannot play effectively its role in regulating the grain growing behavior of the main producing areas.The spontaneous adjustment of the market will cause the grain production price and supply in the main producing areas to deviate from equilibrium after external shocks.The relationship between grain planting area,production price and price fluctuation in non-main producing areas is closer,and the market mechanism is improved. The market’s spontaneous adjustment can return the grain production price and supply to equilibrium after external shocks.Finally,suggestions were put forward to improve the market mechanism and ensure the comparative benefits of grain farmers.