武陵山片区夏季高温天气统计分析与风险评估

The Statistical Analysis and Risk Assessment of the High Temperature Events During Summer in Wuling Mountain Area

高温极端天气是武陵山片区夏季主要气象灾害之一,文章采用1951~2000年武陵山片区中18个观测站的气象数据,通过线性回归、相关系数等统计方法从时间和空间上分析了武陵山片区夏季高温天气的变化规律,运用信息扩散技术计算出了武陵山片区夏季高温天气风险的空间分布.结果显示1951~2000年期间武陵山片区夏季高温日数随时间呈现减少趋势,高温日数高值区主要位于湖北巴东,湖南沅陵、芷江一带,武冈、邵阳一带等河流平原低海拔地区,这些区域发生第二、三等级的高温极端天气的风险概率更大,是武陵山片区高温气象灾害的重点预防区域.这对武陵山片区制定区域发展政策、防灾减灾及生态建设均有一定的指导意义.

Extreme weather of high temperature is one of the main meteorological disasters in Wuling mountain area during summer. In this paper,based on the meteorological data of 18 observatories in Wuling mountain from 1951 to 2000,the spatiotemporal characteristics ofthe high temperature weather in summer were analyzed by statistical methods such as linear regression and correlation coefficient,as well as the spatial variation of the risk of the high temperature weather in summer was calculated using information diffusion technology among the Wuling mountain area. The results show that the number of high temperature days in Wuling mountain area decreases with time from 1951~2000,and the high temperature days are mainly located in river plains and low elevation area such as the Badong of Hubei province,Yuanling,Zhijiang,Wugang and Shaoyang of Hunan province. The risk of high temperature extreme weather in the second and third grades will be the main risk among these areas,and it is the key-preventing area for high temperature meteorological disasters in Wuling mountain area,which has certain guiding significance for the formulation of regional development policies,disaster prevention as well as the mitigation and ecological construction in Wuling mountain area.