区域财政支出对居民消费的门槛效应研究——基于人口结构、收入水平差异的视角

The Threshold Effect of Regional Fiscal Expenditure on Household Consumption——Based on the Difference of Population Structure and Income Level

在人口老龄化、中等收入陷阱背景下,引入人口结构变化和收入水平作为门槛变量,利用1990~2016年我国29个省市的动态面板数据,研究区域财政支出与区域居民消费之间是否存在非线性关系,并进一步检验这种关系是否存在地域差别。实证结果表明,区域财政支出对区域居民消费的影响存在居民收入、人口年龄结构的双重门槛效应。整体来说,区域财政支出对区域居民消费产生挤入效应,肯定了扩张性财政政策带动内需的有效性,但在不同居民收入水平与人口年龄结构水平下,区域财政支出对消费的挤入效应也不同。同时,居民收入、通货膨胀对居民消费的影响具有刺激作用,而城乡收入差距对居民消费却起到了显著的抑制作用。

Under the background of population aging and crossing middle income trap,the paper sets demographic changes and residents’ income as the threshold variables,by using the panel data of 29 provinces in 1990-2016, conducting threshold effect panel model researches the non-linear relationship between government expenditure and household consumption in China, and further examines whether there is regional difference in this relationship. The empirical results show that the impact of fiscal expenditure activities on residents’ consumption significantly exists in the double threshold effect of residents’ income and population age structure. Overall,financial expenditure had a crowding-in effect on residents’ consumption,affirming the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand,but under the different regional residents’ income levels and population age structure levels the effects of fiscal expenditure on consumption are different.At the same time, residents’ income and inflation have a stimulating effect on household consumption, while the urban-rural income gap has played a significant role in curbing household consumption.