区域一体化带动长三角欠发达地区经济增长效应评估——基于DID模型的实证研究

Evaluation on the Economic Growth Effect of the Underdeveloped Areas in Yangtze River Delta Driving by Regional Integration——Empirical Study Based on DID Mode

中国区域经济发展不平衡的问题日益凸显,如何驱动欠发达地区的经济快速增长,实现区域经济协调发展,值得深入研究。文章以2008年国务院推进长三角发展的指导意见及其配套发展规划作为自然实验,选取了177个欠发达地级市为样本,收集了样本市2004-2016年的面板数据,运用双重差分法(DID法)对长三角欠发达地区的经济增长水平进行了效果估计。估计结果表明:推进长三角发展的政策带动了区域欠发达地区的经济快速增长,从带动经济增长的影响因素看,政府经济推动能力、第三产业的发展和居民储蓄水平起到了显著的作用。研究结论可以为政府编制区域一体化发展规划和制定带动欠发达地区经济发展政策提供参考。

The problem of unbalanced regional economic development in China is becoming increasingly prominent. How to drive the rapid economic growth of underdeveloped cities and realize the coordinated development of regional economy is worth further research. With the guidance of Guiding Opinions for Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Delta and Its Supporting Development Planning issued by the State Council in 2008, this paper selected the 177 less-developed cities as samples,collected panel data of the cities in 2004-2016, using difference-in-difference method( DID) to estimate the effect of less developed economic growth in Yangtze River Delta. The results show that the policies have promoted economic develop ment of the less developed region in Yangtze River Delta rapidly. From the perspective of the factors influencing economic growth,the government’s economic driving capacity,the development of tertiary industry and the level of residents’savings have played a significant role. The conclusions can provide reference for the government to formulate regional integration de velopment planning and formulate policies to promote economic development in underdeveloped areas.