基于事故树分析的煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系

Early-warning Index System of Coal and Gas Outburst based on Fault Tree Analysis

科学、合理的预警指标体系是准确、可靠预警煤与瓦斯突出的前提。以两个“四位一体”综合防突技术体系为依据,编制了煤与瓦斯突出事故树,对事故树基本事件进行了归纳和分类。根据分类结果,从生产系统缺陷、客观突出危险、防突措施缺陷、防突管理隐患等 4 个方面,构建了煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系框架。在此基础上,分析各预警要素与煤与瓦斯突出之间的关系,设计和选取了 52 个预警指标,建立了煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系。煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系的建立,可为煤与瓦斯突出预警方法、模型研究和预警系统开发提供指导和支撑。

Scientific and reasonable early warning index system is the premise of accurate and reliable early warning of coal and gas outburst. Based on the two “four in one” comprehensive anti-outburst technology systems, the fault trees of coal and gas outburst were compiled, and the basic events of the fault trees were summarized and classified. According to the classification results, the early-warning index system framework of coal and gas outburst was designed from four aspects, including production system defect, objective outburst danger, defect of outburst prevention measure and hidden danger of outburst prevention management. On this basis, the relationship between early warning elements and coal and gas outburst was analyzed, and 52 early-warning indexes were designed and selected to establish the early-warning index system of coal and gas outburst. The establishment of this system can provide guidance and support for the research of early warning method, model and system.