“全面二孩”政策背景下中国义务教育财政支出的动态模拟

Dynamic Simulation of China’s Fiscal Expenditure for Compulsory Education under the Background of Universal Two-child Policy

党的十九大报告明确指出“促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接”。随着我国“全面二孩”生育政策的实施,新生人口规模扩大,受教育人口数量随之增加,政府需对教育给予多少经费投入?文章以我国义务教育为例,动态模拟了“全面二孩”生育政策实施对教育财政支出的影响效应,研究发现:(1)“全面二孩”生育政策的效应于2022年显现,如果生育意愿为13%,2022—2050年义务教育阶段受教育人口数量仅增加0.4%—4.56%,如果生育意愿提高至50%和100%,2022—2050年义务教育阶段受教育人口数量分别增加1.97%—28.46%和4.09%—63.6%;(2)受教育人口规模扩大带来了教育财政支出增加,如果“全面二孩”生育政策下,生育意愿为13%,2022—2050年义务教育财政支出增加1.04%—5.06%,占2022—2050年财政支出的比重为6.87%—8.91%;如果生育意愿提高至50%和100%,2022—2050年义务教育财政支出分别增加5.16%—30.76%和10.86%—70.18%,占2022—2050年财政支出的比重分别为7.87%—9.72%和9.16%—11.55%。综上所述,我国“全面二孩”生育政策的实施使得义务教育财政支出增加,政府需根据人口数量变动来适时调整义务教育财政支出预算,以保证义务教育正常运转。

The nineteen major report of the Party pointed out supporting the convergence of family planning policies and related economic and social policies. With the implementation of universal two-child policy,the new-born population has increased,and the educated population will be increased. In this way,how much should the government invest in education? Taken compulsory education for example,this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of universal two-child policy on fiscal expenditure for education.The results are shown as follow’s:(1) the effect of universal two-child policy will appear in 2022,if the fertility willingness is 13%,the population for compulsory education increases only 0. 4% to 4. 56% from2022 to 2050,if the fertility willingness increases to 50% and 100%,the population for compulsory education is increased by 1. 97% to 28. 46% and 4. 09% to 63. 6%;( 2) with the increase of population for compulsory education,the fiscal expenditure for compulsory education increases,when the fertility willingness is 13%,the fiscal expenditure for compulsory education will increase by 1. 04% to 5. 06% from 2022 to 2050,accounting for 6. 87% to 8. 91% of the fiscal expenditure;when the fertility willingness raises to50% and 100%,the fiscal expenditure for compulsory education will increase by 5. 16% to 30. 76% and10. 86% to 70. 18% from 2022 to 2050,accounting for 7. 87% to 9. 72% and 9. 16% to 11. 55% of the fiscal expenditure. Therefore,the universal two-child policy brings the increase of fiscal expenditure for compulsory education. The government needs to adjust the budget of compulsory education expenditure according to the change of fertility willingness,so as to ensure the normal operation of compulsory education.