基于门槛时间划定的天津市半城市化区县发展历程及机制研究

Research on the Development History and Mechanism of Peri-Urbanized Areas in Tianjin Based on Indicator Tracking

作为京津冀典型特大城市之一,天津市半城市化区县的发展与城镇化驱动机制在京津冀都市圈有较强的代表性,且与长三角珠三角地区的发展特征有巨大差异。本文在既有研究的基础上优化指标体系,提出门槛时间划定方法和发展模式分析方法,并将其应用于天津市半城市化区县。分析结果显示:天津市半城市化空间扩张经历了轴向缓慢发展、圈层+轴向拓展、中郊蔓延以及远郊辐射四大发展阶段;近远郊发展模式差异较大,其中近郊以土地—综合—人口的快速迭代增长模式为主,中远郊则以土地—人口(经济)的缓慢波动发展模式为主。最后,结合分析结果和实际发展路径对其发展机制与治理瓶颈进行分析。

As one of the typical mega-cities, the development process and urbanization drive mechanism of the peri-urbanized counties in Tianjin are highly representative in the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Therefore, this paper selects the peri-urbanized districts and counties in Tianjin as a typical case to quantitatively analyze its development process and growth mechanism. Based on the previous research methods, the innovative ideas of the threshold time demarcation method are proposed. This method can more accurately identify the key factors in the development period, mode and development motivation of peri-urbanization. The goal of this paper is to provide analytical methods and representative practices for the governance of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei peri-urbanized areas. This paper is divided into three parts. Firstly, this paper sorts out and summarizes the research methods of spatial development process in China’s peri-urbanized areas, including qualitative analysis method and quantitative index method. On this basis, the inheritance research method-the screening of typical indicators and evaluation criteria is proposed. Then it proposes an innovative discriminating method-the development process judgment method of threshold time demarcation. The main method construction steps include the following: indicator system-standard demarcation-threshold conditions-final time threshold determination. Through the inheritance screening of typical indicators in existing research, the nine indicators with the highest frequency of use are extracted, and the index criteria are preliminarily demarcated according to the existing research results. Through the typical period of development of seven typical peri-urbanized districts and four counties in the four metropolitan areas, the conditions for the final threshold time are established. Based on the above research, the final threshold time demarcation method is also established. This method can meet the dual speciality of the development period of the semi-urbanized area-the phase of time and the volatility of development. At the same time, through the induction and screening of typical indicators, the evaluation steps are simplified to facilitate the universal discrimination of the development process of peri-urbanized areas in China. Secondly, the method is applied to the empirical research on the development history of the peri-urbanized districts and counties in Tianjin. It is proposed that the development of periurbanization in Tianjin has experienced four stages of development after 1990. The first stage of development is the period of slow axial development, from 1990 to 2000. The second stage of development is the circle + axial expansion period, from 2001 to 2005. The third stage of development is the period of spread in the middle suburbs, from 2006 to 2010. The fourth stage of development is the period of remote suburban radiation, the time is 2011 to present. Then the paper conducts the 1990-2015 tracking statistics on the three major process indicators (population growth, economic growth, land growth) in the indicator system. The results show that the four growth-trend periods of the peri-urbanized areas in Tianjin is relatively clear. The first period was the slow growth from 1990 to 2000;the second period was the rapid growth of some regions from 2000 to 2005;the third period was the general growth from 2005 to 2010;the fourth period was the decline of the growth rate in some regions from 2010 to 2015. Finally, according to the discriminating results of the development process and the actual development path, the development mechanism and governance bottleneck of the semi-urbanized districts in Tianjin are analyzed. It mainly includes three points: 1. Factors affecting the differentiation of different districts and counties supported by core-regional theory. 2. The convergence of development models in different districts and counties leads to a relatively slow population and economy, compared with the growth of land. 3. Most districts and counties are still in the transitional stage and dynamic change stage of quantitative change to qualitative change, and have not yet reached a relatively stable high-level urbanization stage. The threshold time discrimination method can be further adjusted and optimized based on further increase of the number of empirical samples. In order to form a more universal development period discriminating method, it will be promoted nationwide in peri-urbanized areas.