韶关市深层地温特征及其在夏季气候预测中的应用

Characteristics of Soil Temperature in Deep Layers in the City of Shaoguan and Their Application in Predicting Summer Climate

利用韶关市1981—2010年40、80、160以及320cm的月平均地温资料,计算并分析年平均地温变化。结果表明:韶关市1981—2010年深层地温年际变化大体呈上升趋势,而且深层地温的逐月变化随着深度的增加变化幅度逐渐减小,而地温的高值和低值的出现时间也随着深度的增加而后延。利用Mann-Kendall检验分析突变,发现40、80、320cm地温均在1996年出现突变。通过计算分析各层地温与夏季降水和气温的相关系数,选取了相关显著的因子,利用逐步回归建立了夏季气温和降水预报方程。计算所得的2个方程F值均通过了95%的信度检验,历史回代拟合率相对理想。

Using the data of monthly mean soil temperature of Shaoguan at the depths of 40, 80, 160, and 320 cm from 1981 to 2010, this paper computes and studies its annual variation. The result is shown as follows. In the city, the annual variation of deep-layer soil temperature shows a generally rising trend over the period, and with the increase of depth its monthly variation varies by decreasing amplitude and the occurrence of high and low soil temperature is put off at an increasingly later time. Analyzing abrupt changes using the Mann-Kendall test, it is found that soil temperature at the depths of 40, 80, and 320 cm all experienced abrupt changes in 1996. By calculating correlation coefficients between the soil temperature at various depths and summer precipitation and temperature, factors with significant correlation were selected and forecasting equations for summer temperature and precipitation were set up using progressive regression technique. The F values of the two equations calculated all passed the confidence test at the 95% level and the fitting rate of historical iteration is relatively ideal.