摘要
我国应急管理体制以政府为主导,绝大部分数据资源为政府管理和支配,随着人工智能技术在应急管理研究领域的发展势如破竹,政府进行高质量数据开放和共享平台构建的数字化转型,进而建立快速、高效的应急管理体系迫在眉睫。文章基于人工智能的不同路径,总结应急物资需求预测的国内外理论动态并划分研究方法,通过对相关文献进行关键词、发文量和智能路径分析,从大数据机器学习的视角阐明了政府开放应急管理数据的必要性和存在问题。我国的应急物资管理研究虽起步较晚,但应用人工智能领域相关技术广泛,理论贡献集中于模拟人类大脑路径,与大数据和智能设备等相结合的研究成果转化不足。未来我国政府应关注基于大数据机器学习路径的数据开放,传统的需求预测方法和人工智能的动态预测方法相结合将是应急管理的必经之路。
The emergency management system in China is guided by the government,and most data resources are managed and controlled by the government.With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in the field of emergency management research,it is urgent for the government to carry out the digital transformation of the construction of high-quality data opening and sharing platform,so as to establish a rapid and efficient emergency management system.Based on different paths of artificial intelligence,the paper summarizes the theoretical dynamics of emergency material demand prediction at home and abroad and divides the research methods.Through the analysis of key words,publication volume and intelligent path of relevant literatures,the paper clarifies the necessity and existing problems of government open emergency management data from the perspective of big data machine learning.Although the research on emergency material management in China started late,related technologies in the field of artificial intelligence are widely applied,and theoretical contributions mainly focus on simulating human brain pathways.However,research achievements combined with big data and intelligent devices are not fully transformed.In the future,the Chinese government should pay attention to the data opening based on the big data machine learning path.As well as,the combination of the traditional demand forecasting method and the dynamic forecasting method of artificial intelligence will be the necessary way of emergency management.
作者
朱晓鑫
张广海
孙佰清
孟禺
Zhu Xiao-xin;Zhang Guang-hai;Sun Bai-qing;Meng Yu
出处
《图书馆理论与实践》
CSSCI
2019年第6期61-67,共7页
Library Theory and Practice
基金
2018年国家自然科学基金面上项目“大数据驱动下基于灾民特性的重大自然灾害应急物资精准配置研究”(项目编号:71774042)
2018年中国博士后科学基金面上项目“基于游客特性的旅游突发事件应急资源优化配置研究”(项目编号:2018M632725)的研究成果
关键词
人工智能
应急管理
开放数据
需求预测
Artificial Intelligence
Emergency Management
Open Data
Demand Forecasting