基于功率预测误差修正的日前风电出力分布估计

Estimation of Day-Ahead Wind Power Distribution Based on Power Forecast Error Correction

风电功率预测是整个风电运行与控制体系的基础支撑技术模块。基于功率预测误差的修正结果,提出了一种风电场日前有功出力分布的估计方法。首先验证了风电功率的预测误差水平受到风速大小的三次方、风电功率的峰度、风电功率的大小和功率预测相关性等多个因素的影响;然后利用多元线性回归法建立风电功率预测误差的估计模型,并对风电场日前的点功率预测值进行修正;最后利用广义误差分布模型估计出风电出力的上下限。以华北地区某座风电场作为测试算例进行分析,验证了该出力分布估计方法的有效性。

Wind power forecast is the basic support technology module for the whole wind power operation and control system.Based on the correction results of power prediction error,an estimation method of day-ahead power distribution of wind farm is proposed.Firstly,it is verified that the prediction error level of wind power is affected by the factors such as the third power of wind speed,the peak of wind power,the size of wind power and the correlation of power prediction;Then,the estimation model of wind power prediction error is established by using multiple linear regression,and the point power prediction value of wind farm is corrected;Finally,the generalized error distribution model is used to estimate the upper and lower limits of wind power output.Case study based on actual operation data of a wind farm in Northern China shows that the proposed method is effective.