广州市旧村庄更新的市场化程度及其影响因素研究

On the Marketization Degree and Its Influencing Factors of Old Village Renewal in Guangzhou City

基于旧村庄更新模式维度,构建旧村庄更新市场化指数模型,利用2007-2016年广州市面板数据,测算旧村庄更新市场化程度。以旧村庄更新市场化程度为因变量,以人均土地面积,城镇化率,第一产业产值,非农产业产值比重,人均可支配收入,土地财政依赖度,土地市场政策变量为自变量,运用多元线性回归模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数等方法,分析旧村庄更新的市场化程度与其影响因素之间的动态关系,结果表明:政策变量、人均土地面积、城镇化率、土地财政依赖度与旧村庄更新市场化程度之间存在着单向因果关系;城镇化率、非农产值比重、政策变量对旧村庄更新市场化程度存在正向冲击,土地财政依赖度为负向冲击。

Based on the dimension of the old village renewal model,this paper constructed an old village renewal marketization index model,and used the panel data of Guangzhou from 2007 to 2016 to measure the degree of marketization of the old village.Taking the marketization degree of old village renewal as dependent variable,and taking the per capita land area,the urbanization rate,the primary industry output value,the proportion of non-agricultural output value,the per capita disposable income,degree of land financial dependence and land market policy variables as independent variables,this paper used multiple linear regression model,Granger causality test and impulse response function to analyze the dynamic relationship between the degree of marketization of old village renewal and its influencing factors.The results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between policy variables,per capita land area,urbanization rate,land financial dependence and the degree of marketization of old village renewal.The urbanization rate,the proportion of non-agricultural output value and policy variables have a positive impact on the marketization degree of old village renewal,while the degree of land finance dependence has a negative impact.