中德竞技体育国际竞争力比较研究

The Research of International Competitiveness on Competitive Sports Between China and Germany

运用竞技体育国际竞争力双框架分析模型对中德竞技体育国际竞争力进行比较分析,得出如下结论:1)从显现性框架分析,德国竞技体育国际竞争力在东西德合并初期呈逐步下滑的态势,至2008年后处于相对稳定并开始略有上升;中国竞技体育国际竞争力呈现以2008年为峰顶的倒"U"型发展趋势,显现性竞争力指数于2004年超越德国并产生一定优势;2)从解释性框架分析,德国解释性竞争力变化缓慢相对稳定,而中国则呈现稳步的逐渐提升态势并进一步扩大对德国的领先优势;3)中国在夏季奥运会、夏季残奥会的竞争力要强于德国,占有相对优势;而德国在冬季奥运会、冬季残奥会与世界运动会中的竞争力要强于中国并占有绝对优势;4)中国冬季项目与群体发展远远落后于德国,短期内难以实现超越;5)坚持"举国体制"、举办2022年冬奥会和国民消费转型是当前中国竞技体育发展的机遇,但群体基础薄弱、优势项目扩展与项目布局转型仍然是中国竞技体育发展面临的困境。

We compared international competitiveness between China and Germany by applying double frame analysis model of international competitiveness on competitive sports,and get the conclusions. 1. From the analysis of apparent framework,the international competitiveness on competitive sports of Germany show the trend of gradual decline at the early stage of the merger of East and West Germany,and after 2008,staying relatively stable and starting to rise slightly. The international competitiveness on competitive sports of China presenting the inverted ’U’ type development trend with 2008 as the peak. The apparent competitiveness index of China overtaking Germany in 2004 and gaining a certain advantage. 2. By analyzing with explanatory framework,the change on explanatory framework of Germany slowly and relatively stable,but China presenting steady and gradual improvement and further expansion of Germany’s leading edge. 3. The competitiveness of China in competitive sports during Summer Olympic Games and Summer Paralympic Games are better than Germany. In contrarily,The competitiveness of Germany in competitive sports during Winter Olympic Games and Winter Paralympic Games are stronger than China and have absolute advantages. 4. The development of winter projects and groups in China lags far behind that in Germany and is difficult to surpass in the short term. 5.The development of winter sports events and groups in China lags far behind that in Germany. It is difficult to achieve the goal of exceeding the national system,holding the 2022 Winter Olympics and the transformation of national consumption in a short time.This is an opportunity for the development of competitive sports in China. However,the weak group foundation,the expansion of advantageous sports events and the transformation of project layout are still the predicaments facing the development of competitive sports in China.