世界人口发展趋势和人口转变——理论与现实

World Population Trends and Demographic Transition: Theory and Reality

人口转变理论是对人口转变过程的精炼概括。重点阐述三次人口转变理论的主要内容和发展脉络,分析当前世界人口发展的阶段及趋势。结果表明,世界人口发展仍不平衡,人口总量在增长,但增速在下降;欧美生育水平较低,而非洲生育率始终居高不下;发达国家主要面临低生育率和人口老龄化问题,而发展中国家主要面临贫困和人口过快增长的问题。比较中美两国人口发展的特征,发现二者都已经步入老龄化社会,但美国作为移民国家,其老龄化问题相对更轻。中国应借鉴人口转变理论及发达国家应对人口老龄化政策的经验,采取妥善措施应对人口问题。

Demographic transition theories are a refined summary of the process of population transformation. This paper focuses on the main contents and development context of the three population transition theories, and analyses the current stage and trend of world population development. The results show that: the world population development is still unbalanced, while the amount of population is increasing, the growth rate is decreasing;the fertility level in Europe and the United States is relatively low, while Africa's fertility rate remains high;the developed countries mainly face the problems of low fertility and aging population, while the developing countries mainly face the problems of poverty and rapid population growth. Comparing China with the United States, it is found that, although both countries have become an aging society, the United States, as a country of immigration, aging problem is comparatively less serious. China should learn from the demographic transition theories and the experience of developed countries in dealing with aging population, and take appropriate measures to deal with population problems.