双边服务贸易成本测度及服务贸易增长分解——来自中国与21个OECD国家的面板数据分析

Measurement of Bilateral Services Trade Cost and Decomposition of Services Trade Growth:Based on Panel Data of China and 21 OECD Countries

借鉴贸易成本的测算方法,运用最新数据库对中国与OECD国家2000~2016年双边服务贸易成本进行测度,结果显示:中国服务贸易成本基本呈下降趋势,尤其是2007年之前下降趋势较明显,得益于《中国服务贸易具体承诺减让表》中市场准入承诺多以6年为限;2007年之后由于减让承诺边际效应的递减和金融危机导致了服务贸易成本小幅上升。对各贸易伙伴国的分组研究发现:距离越远、收入越低的国家与中国的服务贸易成本越高,替代弹性的差异对双边服务贸易成本的变化趋势没有影响。根据模型进行分解的结果表明,产出因素和贸易成本因素是中国与OECD国家双边服务贸易的主要推助力。为降低服务贸易成本,中国应加大对新兴服务业的投资力度,构建跨境服务产业链。

In this paper, learning from foreign scholars who derived trade cost measurement method from the modified gravity model, we use the latest database to make a measurement of bilateral services trade cost between China and OECD countries from 2000 to 2016. The results show that China’s foreign services trade cost substantially decline. But before 2007, trend was very obvious. But after 2007, there was almost no change. It even rose a little in 2008 and 2009. Furthermore, this paper also makes a group study on the distance characteristics and income characteristics of each trading partner country. It finds that the farther the distance, the lower the income, the higher the services trade cost between the country and China. At the same time, the elasticity of substitution has no effect on the trend of the cost of bilateral trade in services. Through the decomposition of trade growth model, we find that the growth in services output and the decline in bilateral services trade cost are the main driving forces of services trade growth between China and OECD countries. Income similarity has a certain impact on the growth of bilateral trade in services, while the effect of multilateral resistance is not obvious. This paper provides empirical support and policy recommendations for China to reduce the cost of trade in services and promote the liberalization of trade in services.