中国信息化与农业现代化协调发展研究——基于省域视角及2003—2016年数据的分析

Synergies of informatization and agricultural modernization in China from the provincial perspective and the data from 2000 to 2016

基于2003-2016年中国31个省市区的统计数据对省域信息化与农业现代化协调发展水平进行测评,并对其演进趋势予以分析。结果表明:省域信息化与农业现代化协调发展水平均呈现比较稳定的增长趋势,但省域间有较大差异,呈现出东部沿海>东北>中部>西北>西南的空间格局。而根据动态空间面板计量经济学模型对两者协调发展的影响因素的实证分析表明:经济水平、产业结构、城镇化水平、基础设施、外商投资、居民消费等因素对省域“两化”协调发展具有正向影响。同时省域信息化与农业现代化协调发展存在正的空间外溢效应。

Based on the statistics of in 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2016, this paper evaluates the synergies of provincial informatization and agricultural modernization and analyzes its evolution tendency. It is found that the synergies of informatization and agricultural modernization grow steadily despite striking provincial differences resenting a spatial pattern:with the eastern coastal provinces on top of the list, followed by the Northeast ,the Central provinces in the middle, the Northwest provinces in the fourth place and the Southwest the last. An empirical study on synergy impact factors based on the dynamic spatial econometric models shows that economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, infrastructure construction, foreign investment and household consumption exert positive impact on the coordinated development. Meanwhile, a positive spatial spillover effect can be found in the synergies of provincial informatization and agricultural modernization.