中美“新冷战”的博弈分析及中国的应对

Game Analysis of “New Cold War” Between China and America and Strategic Response from China

中美贸易战迟迟未果而日益激烈,2018年10月4日彭斯演讲被视为美国的"经济铁幕",中美"新冷战"论调再起。若以美苏冷战为依据则两国无论是在实力对比、主观意愿或竞争领域方面都不构成"新冷战",但中美竞争已经超越单纯贸易竞争而上升为战略竞争,两国的"冷战"因素不断扩大,这对中美关系发展是一种警示。中国作为博弈被动方应做好长期应战准备,维护本国的合法权益,在与美国讨价还价中获得帕累托最优。

The tune of a new cold war between China and America has been risen again since the trade war is becoming fierce and Mike Pence made a speech on October 4 th,2018,which was regarded as the "economic iron curtain"of the United States. However,the frictions between the two countries have not constituted "a new cold war"yet in terms of their strengths,subjective will or the competition fields according to the standard of US-Soviet cold war. Sino-US competition has gone beyond pure trade contradiction to strategic competition. The factor of a "new cold war"is expanding,which is a warning to the relations between the two countries. China,as the passive side,should have a long-term preparation to bargain with America to get Pareto optimality,and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.