新能源、传统能源与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

CASE STUDY ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AND NEW/TRADITIONAL ENERGIES

采用2000-2016年的样本数据,基于MSIH(2)-VAR(1)模型,研究新能源、传统能源与中国经济增长的动态关系。结果表明传统能源与经济增长呈U型趋势。传统能源随着经济增长经历了下降-增长的过程,并且伴随着中国经济增长,传统能源还有继续增长的趋势。新能源与经济增长目前处于U型的下降阶段,尚未形成新能源与经济增长的协同发展。通过区制转换概率矩阵,可以发现新能源、传统能源与经济增长的关系较为稳定。政府应当着眼于新能源、传统能源与经济增长长期政策的制定,避免短期行为。由脉冲响应函数分析可知,新能源对经济增长的冲击反应逐渐增大;传统能源对经济增长的冲击反应逐渐减小。新能源对经济增长的冲击具有持续性特征。因此,从长期发展而言,促进新能源产业升级,对于经济增长的可持续性具有重要的支撑作用。

This paper, based on 2000-2016 data, uses MSIH(2)-VAR(1) model to study the interaction between China’s economic growth and new/traditional energies with results showing a U-shaped trend between the traditional energy and economic growth. The traditional energy has undergone descending-ascending stages as economy grows, and continues to ascend. The new energy and economy are at the descending stage of the U-shape, not in a co-integration. Transition probability matrix suggests a stable relation between economy growth and new/traditional energies. Government shall focus on making long-term polices regarding this to avoid any short-term solutions. Impulse Response function indicates that the new energy is increasingly imposing impacts on economic growth, continuously;the traditional energy is on the contrary. This paper suggests that promoting an upgrade of new energy supports the sustainable development of economy for the long-term.