甘肃中部临夏温湿变化及影响分析

Temperature and Humidity Change and Its Influence in Linxia,Gansu Province

根据甘肃中部临夏州1971—2018年气温、降水,1980—2018年干旱资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析临夏地区气温、降水量分布特点、变化趋势和气温的突变性及对干旱影响。结果表明:1971—2018年,临夏年平均气温呈上升趋势,1997年是气温突变年,20世纪80年代初期较低,90年代后期开始进入暖期,特别是在1999—2018年,气温急剧增暖。冬季和春季变暖趋势大于夏季,秋季气温变化幅度较小,临夏气温以中部和北部增温幅度最大。降水呈减少趋势,20世纪70年代降水量偏多,80—90年代偏少。与历年值相比,1971—1980年降水量增加6.3%,1981—1990年减少0.5%,1991—2000年减少1.8%,2001—2010年增加2.1%,2011—2017年减少2.3%。夏季降水量呈略减少趋势,其它季节为增加趋势。春旱、秋旱略有增加,春末夏初及伏旱略有减少趋势。

Using the temperature and precipitation data in Linxia of Gansu Prorince from 1971 to 2018,and the drought data from 1980 to 2018,the variation and distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Linxia were analyzed by the methods of linear tendency estimation method,Mann-Kendall mutation test.The results show that,the average annual temperature in Linxia increases from 1971 to 2018,and the warming trend in winter and spring is more obvious than that in summer and autumn.The temperature increase is higher in the central and north of Linxia.The precipitation in Linxia in the 1970s was relatively high but it was relatively low in the 1980s and 1990s.Compared that with previous years,precipitation from 1971 to 1980 increased by 6.3%,from 1981 to 2000 decreased by 0.5%,from 1991 to 2000 decreased by 1.8%,from 2001 to 2010 increased by 2.1%,and from 2011 to 2018 decreased by 2.3%.The precipitation decreases in summer and increases in other three seasons.The drought increases slightly in spring and autumn and decreases in late spring and early summer and summer.