基于个体选择概率的出行方式博弈模型研究

Agame Model on Travel Modes Based on Probability Choice of Individuals

为了合理使用有限的道路资源和降低社会总出行成本,以效用最大化为最终目标,以对小汽车的选择概率为个体的策略,构建了一个双层博弈模型.研究了相互影响下出行者对出行方式的选择行为以及小汽车收费价格与社会总效用的关系.博弈分析结果表明:每一类出行者之间的博弈存在唯一Nash均衡;每一类出行者的最佳小汽车出行率随着收费价格的升高而降低,但降低幅度递减;必定存在使社会总效用最大的小汽车收费值.最后通过算例分析,得出了在出行者基本属性已知时的最佳小汽车出行率和最优收费价格.

In order to rationally use the limited road resources and cut down the total trip cost of the society,regarding the utility maximization as the ultimate goal and the choice probability of a car as the individual target,a two-level game model was constructed.Choice behaviors of the travelers under interaction and the relationship between the charge price of a car and the total social utility were studied.The game analyzing result shows that unique Nash equilibrium exists in the game among each sort of travelers.The best trip rate of cars decreased with the increasing of the charge price,but the decreased degree declines.There exits definitely a best charge price that can maximize the total social utility.Lastly,an example was shown,in which the best travel rate of cars and the best charge price were obtained when the basic properties of each travelers were known.