基于监测雷电流的输电线路雷击实时风险评估

Real-Time Lightning Risk Evaluation of Transmission Line Based on Monitoring Lightning Current

针对传统雷击风险评估没有反映雷电对输电线路时变影响的特点,提出了基于监测雷电流的输电线路雷击实时风险评估新方法。该方法首先通过规程法计算反击耐雷水平,并对历史雷电定位数据进行筛选统计,拟合出极端雷电流的GEV概率分布,采集实时监测的雷电流数据,建立了基于GEV分布的反击闪络时变概率计算模型。联合改进电气几何模型和风险等级划分方法,实现了从杆塔到线路的雷击实时风险评估。最后,将该模型应用于惠州电网线路,通过实际案例验证了该评估模型的有效性和可行性。

Aiming at the traditional lightning risk evaluation do not reflect the characteristics of influence of lightning on transmission line change, a real-time lightning risk evaluation of transmission line based on monitoring lightning current is introduced. Firstly, the back flashover level are computed according to the regulation method, and fit the GEV probability distribution of extreme lightning current through screening of historical lightning location data, and then establish the back flashover time-varying probability calculation model based on GEV distribution according to real-time monitoring of lightning current data.Combined with the improved electric geometry model and risk grading method, the lightning time-varying failure risk evaluation has realized from the tower to the line. Finally, the model is applied to the Huizhou power grid, and the effectiveness and feasibility of this model is verified by a practical case.