认证机制的需求窃取和扩张效应——基于淘宝网金牌卖家认证的经验研究

Demand Stealing and Expansion Effect of Certification Mechanism: An Empirical Research Based on Taobao Gold-Medal-Seller Certification

本文通过理论模型分别从企业个体层面和行业整体层面梳理了认证机制的需求窃取和扩张效应,以淘宝网引入的金牌卖家认证为例,基于准实验匹配方法进行实证检验。研究发现,企业新获得认证时会使竞争对手的销量减少,且与未获得认证企业相比,新认证企业使原已获得认证企业销量减少得更多;认证的这种需求窃取效应与企业的大小负相关,与商品的价格正相关;同时随获得认证企业的增加,市场总需求也会扩大。以上结论进一步表明,企业新获得认证后销量的增加并非只来源于竞争对手销量的减少,还包括一部分新创造出来的市场需求。此外,本文理论模型推导出认证机构的准确性越高,认证的需求扩张效应也越大。

This paper aims at the phenomenon that Chinese enterprises are competing to apply for certification;it takes further standardization and perfection of China’s certification system as a starting point. Through the theoretical model, this paper combs the demand stealing effect and expansion effect of the certification mechanism from the perspective of individual enterprise and industry as a whole. Taking the gold-medal-seller certification introduced by Taobao as an example, this study conducts an empirical test based on the quasi-experiments matching method, and systematically examines the impact of certification on the sales volume of all kinds of enterprises and total market demand on the market, as well as the relationship between certification stealing effect and enterprise characteristics and product characteristics. This study finds that when an enterprise newly obtains the certification, it will reduce the sales volume of the competitors, and the new certification enterprise reduces the sales volume of the originally certified enterprises more than the non-certification enterprises. This demand stealing effect of certification is negatively correlated with the size of the enterprises and positively correlated with the price of the products. At the same time, with the increase of certified enterprises, the total market demand will also expand. The above conclusions further indicate that the increase in sales volume of enterprises after newly certified is not only from the reduction of competitors’ sales, but also a part of the newly created market demand. In addition, the theoretical model of this paper also deduces that the higher the probability of identifying the high quality enterprises by the certification institution, the greater the effect of the certification demand expansion. In the real economy, the government should promote the merger and reorganization of the certification industry and increase the publicity of the certification system. Strengthen the certification information disclosure and introduce the rating certification mode. Reduce the technical capital barriers for enterprises to improve their quality and strengthen the supervision of the certification institution.