基于经济新常态的我国创新型货币政策工具效率分析

Analysis of the Efficiency of Innovative Monetary Policy Tools in China Based on the New Normal Economy

在经济新常态和利率市场化改革的背景下,我国相继推出了各种创新的货币政策工具。以四种创新的货币政策工具SLF、SLO、PSL、MLF为研究对象,从这四种工具的推出原因以及传导路径等方面进行分析,同时,VAR模型被用于实证分析这四种创新型货币政策工具对货币供应量M2、社会融资规模SFS和上海银行间同业拆借利率SHIBOR这三个中介目标的作用和影响,进而分析出这四种工具的实施效果。研究发现,创新货币政策工具对M2和SHIBOR的调控具有显著的作用,对社会融资规模没有发挥出相应的作用,说明宽货币向宽信用方向的传导存在时滞性,也表明数量型向价格型转变的趋势。为此,提出了相关的政策建议。

Under the background of economic new normal and interest rate marketization reform,China has launched various kinds of innovative monetary policy tools one after another.Four innovative monetary policy tools,SLF,SLO,PSL,MLF,were taken as the research object,and the reasons and transmission paths of these four tools were analyzed comprehensively in the paper,at the same time,the VAR model was used for empirical analysis.The role and impact of innovation monetary policy tools on M2,social financing scale and SHIBOR′s three intermediate objectives,were analyzed and the implementation effects of these four tools were shown.It found that innovative monetary policy tools have a significant effect on the regulation of M2 and SHIBOR,and have not played a corresponding role in the scale of social financing,which indicated that there is a time lag in the transmission of wide currency to wide credit,and also indicated the trend of quantitative to price-based transformation.For this,it put forward relevant policy recommendations at last.