全国统一碳市场对电力行业减排的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of National Carbon Market on Emission Reduction in Power Industry in China

在资源、能源和环境压力日益加大的背景下,建设全国碳市场是实现减排目标的必要政策之一。全国碳市场将首批覆盖电力行业,此前的影响分析多集中在行业层面,相对缺乏对企业微观层面的碳排放权交易效果的实证分析。本文基于478家电厂实际数据,采用局部均衡分析方法从企业层面分析了排放权交易对火电企业的影响,我们考虑基于技术链表的企业减排成本曲线,预估了各电厂在不同情景下的减排量与配额交易量,以及相应的均衡碳价格。结果显示,碳排放权交易对于样本内全部电厂都有成本节约效应,尤其是对于初始碳强度相对较高或较低的电厂。当发电集团具有市场力时,均衡碳价有所升高,尤其是大唐集团在市场力情形下,配额的买卖关系发生改变。因此,本研究认为推迟碳市场开展时间将导致整体效率下降,应加快推进全国统一碳市场工作的开展。

In the context of the pressures from the resources, energy and environment, A national carbon market is necessary for China to achieve its emission reduction targets. The initial step of the national carbon market covers the power industry. However, most previous impact analysis of carbon market in China focus on the industry level, and less attention has been paid to the firm level. Based on the data of 478 power plants, this paper analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading on thermal power enterprises using the partial equilibrium analysis method. We estimate the emission reduction cost curve of enterprises based on the technology portfolios, and calculate the emission reduction, carbon price and trading volume of each power plant under different scenarios. The results show that all power plants in the sample can achieve cost-saving, especially for the plants with a relatively high or low initial carbon intensity. When the power generation group has market power, the equilibrium carbon price will be increased, especially in the case of the market power of Datang Group. Delaying the development of the carbon market leads to a decline in efficiency, accelerating the development of the national carbon market is necessary.