摘要
獐子岛“黑天鹅”事件让市场参与各方大跌眼镜。本文通过引入KMV模型,对獐子岛“黑天鹅”事件之前的理论违约概率进行测算,并与同期评级机构对獐子岛的信用评级相对照,验证了KMV模型在对上市公司进行财务预警时相较于传统评级机构的信用评级所具有的前瞻性。
Market participants were stunned by Zhangzi Island Black Swan Event.By introducing KMV model,the paper calculates the theoretical probability of default of Zhangzi Island before the event occurred.The results of calculations are later compared to the ratings provided by the rating agency during the same period.It follows that KMV model has some forward-looking relative to the traditional credit ratings issued by credit r ating agencies in the financial early warning for listed companies.
作者
王元月
景在伦
刘伟
WANG Yuan-yue;JING Zai-lun;LIU Wei(College of Economics,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266100,China;College of Management,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266100,China;Bank of China Yunnan Branch,Yunnan Kunming 650051,China;School of Economics & Management,Qingdao Agriculture University,Shandong Qingdao 266109,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2019年第3期56-61,共6页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
关键词
獐子岛
黑天鹅事件
KMV模型
财务预警
Zhangzi Island
Black Swan Event
KMV Model
Financial early warning