长江经济带经济增长对工业污染的影响分析——基于地理距离矩阵的空间杜宾模型

Analysis of the Impact of Economic Growth on Industrial Pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on Spatial Dubin Model of Geographic Distance Matrix

基于2000-2015年长江经济带11个省份经济增长和工业污染的省际面板数据,运用环境库兹涅茨(Kuznets)方程建立经济增长与工业污染之间的空间计量模型,分析经济增长对工业"三废"污染的影响效应。研究结果表明:区域人口聚集与环境污染之间存在显著的空间效应;考虑空间因素后,经济增长对"三废"影响的差异性更加显著。控制其他解释变量后,长江经济带经济增长对工业废气污染的省际溢出效应和总效应都呈现类"N"型关系,与工业废水污染存在倒"N"型关系,与工业固体废弃物产生量呈现单调递增线性关系。最后,为长江经济带经济与环境的协调发展提供相关政策建议参考。

In order to analyze the impact of economic growth on industrial "three wastes" pollution , based on the interprovincial panel data of economic growth and industrial pollution in the eleven provinces along the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2015, this research uses the environmental Kuznets equation to establish a spatial measurement model between economic growth this research uses pollution. The results show that the obvious spatial effect exists between regional population concentration and environmental pollution. The difference of economic growth to the "three wastes" is more significant after considering the spatial factors. After controlling other explanatory variables, the relationship between the economic growth of the Yangtze River economic belt and the inter-provincial spillover effect and total effect of industrial waste gas emissions is "N” type, the relationship with industrial wastewater discharge is inverted "N" type, and monotonically increasing linear relationship with industrial solid waste production. Finally, we provide some relevant policy recommendations for the economy and environment coordinated development of the Yangtze River economic belt.