排污费对火力发电环境治理效率的门限效应研究

Study on the Threshold Effect of Cost-Based Environmental Regulation on the Efficiency of Emission Reduction in Thermal Power Generation

运用基于松弛变量的网络数据包络分析模型(NSBM)测算了我国2005-2015年除西藏及港澳台地区以外的30个省份的火力发电环境治理效率,在此基础上,基于门限面板模型就排污费征收对火力发电环境治理效率的非线性效应进行了实证研究。结果表明:排污费制度对于我国火力发电环境治理效率具有显著的单门限效应:当排污费与GDP之比小于3.023时,排污费征收对火力发电环境治理效率具有积极作用,作用系数为0.073;当排污费与GDP之比大于3.023时,排污费征收的积极作用大大减小,仅为0.002。从样本期间的平均值来看,除北京、天津、上海等7省份的排污费征收对火力发电环境治理效率的作用较为显著,其余绝大多数省份排污费征收对火力发电环境治理效率的影响并不显著,由此印证了"费改税"的必要性及合理性。

This paper employs a network data envelopment analysis based on slacks(NSBM) to measure abatement efficiency of thermal power of 30 provinces in China except Tibet from 2005 to 2015, and then the threshold panel model was used to study the impact of cost-based environmental regulation and abatement efficiency of thermal power in China. The results show that cost-based environmental regulation as a significant single threshold effect on the abatement efficiency of thermal power in China. When the proportion of cost and GDP is less than 3.023, the regulation has a greater positive effect on abatement efficiency of thermal power, which is 0.073;when the proportion of cost and GDP is bigger than 3.023, the positive effect of the regulation on the abatement efficiency of thermal power is greatly reduced, which is only 0.002. According to the average of the sample period, except Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and other seven provinces, the cost-based regulation has a significant effect on the abatement efficiency of thermal power. The other vast majority of provinces in the cost-based regulation for the abatement efficiency of thermal power are not significant. Based on this, the necessity and rationality of "fee to tax" are put forward.