基于CA-Markov模型的长吉示范区土地利用格局多情景预测研究

Dynamic Scenario Simulation of Land Cover Changes in the Changchun-Jilin Demonstration Zone of Jilin Province Based on the CA-Markov Model

吉林省长吉产业创新发展示范区位于我国东北地区的地理中心,是实施新一轮东北振兴和吉林省融入国家“一带一路”倡议的重要地区,该区土地利用变化对于生态环境变化及区域经济、社会发展有重要影响。本研究以Landsat TM/OLI和ZY-3遥感影像为数据源,获取长吉示范区1990年、2000年、2010年和2015年土地利用数据,分析示范区土地利用动态趋势,并利用CA-Markov模型预测了自然发展和生态规划两种情景下的2040年土地利用格局。结果表明,1990~2015年期间,约有288.14km^2的林地转化为耕地,同时有200.29km^2的耕地转化为建设用地。自然发展型情景预测结果显示,到2040年,长吉示范区森林面积将继续萎缩,湿地、耕地损失严重,建设用地显著扩张。生态规划型情景预测结果表明,如采取积极的生态保护和恢复措施,到2040年,示范区森林面积将恢复至910.17km^2,湿地将得到有效恢复,优质农耕区得到保护,同时保证了区域城镇化的发展。通过本研究中不同土地利用发展情境的模拟,可为示范区土地规划、生态保护和区域可持续发展提供决策依据。

The Changchun-Jilin Industry-innovative Development Demonstration Zone located in the geographical center in the northeast of China, and it is an important area for new round revitalization of the northeast and Jilin incorporating into the Belt and Road. The land-use changes in this area have important influences on regional economic and social development. Based on Landsat TM/OLI image data and Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA), this paper acquired the land-use patterns of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 in Changchun-Jilin Demonstration Zone and analyzed the trends of land cover changes. This paper also forecasted two types of land covers in natural development pattern and ecology- plan pattern using CA-Markov. The results indicated that about 288.14 km^2 of forestland were transformed into arable land, and 200.29 km^2 of arable land were converted to build-up land at the same time. The forecast of land cover in ecology- plan pattern showed that the area of forestland will be increased to 910.17 km^2 by the year 2040 only if the ecological protection and the restoration measure can be taken continuously. It made sure the build-up lands continued to expand, meanwhile, wetlands and arable land would be effectively restored and protected. This paper studied the forecasts of land covers in different development patterns and contributed great practical and scientific significance to land planning, ecological protection and regional sustainable development in Changchun-Jilin Development Demonstration Zone.