城市公交平均候车时间估计模型

Estimation Model of Average Waiting Time for Urban Bus

城市公交系统中包含海量的IC卡刷卡数据与公交智能调度数据,这些数据是对城市公交的运营状况和服务水平进行全面、客观、科学评价的基础。公交候车时间可以直接反映公交系统的运营和服务水平,是影响公交运输竞争力的一个重要因素。该文分别针对普通公交站点和快速公交(BRT)站点建立平均候车时间估计模型。其中对于普通站点,通过泊松分布、伽马分布等概率模型来估计乘客到达车站的时间,结合公交车的报站信息获取公交车辆的到达间隔,以此进行平均候车时间的计算;而对于BRT站点,通过上下车信息推断算法,估计乘客的上车时间,再结合乘客刷卡进站的时间来进行平均候车时间的计算。通过对公交站点的实地调查,验证了该模型估计的准确性。最后将其应用于广州市公交系统全网的分析计算,实现线路—班次—站点的层面对平均候车时间进行估计。

There are massive smart card data and intelligent transit dispatching data in the urban transit system,which are the basis for a comprehensive,objective and scientific evaluation of the operational status and service level of urban public transport.Bus waiting time can directly reflect the operation and service level of the transit system,which is an important factor affecting the bus competitive power.This paper establishes an average waiting time estimation model for normal bus stations and BRT stations.For normal bus stations,the probability of passengers arriving at the station is estimated by a probability model using Poisson distribution or Gamma distribution.The average waiting time of bus station is calculated basing on the arrival time interval of bus.For BRT stations,the passengers’boarding time is estimated by a boarding-alighting,and the bus waiting time is calculated in combination with the transaction time of smart cards.The accuracy of the model is verified by a field survey of a bus station in Guangzhou.Finally,this model is applied to the analysis and calculation of the whole network of Guangzhou public transit system,and the average waiting time for“station-shift-station”is calculated.