“保险+期货”试点可以提高农户种粮积极性吗?——基于农户参与意愿中介效应与政府补贴满意度调节效应的分析

Can the Pilot Project of “Insurance Plus Futures” Improve Farmers’ Enthusiasm to Grow Grain?An Analysis from the Perspectives of Mediating Effect of Farmers’ Participation Willingness and Moderating Effect of Their Satisfaction with Government Subsidies

中国农产品供给长期偏紧,国内外农产品市场波动呈加剧趋势。“保险+期货”试点是中国农业风险管理创新的有益探索。本文采用Logit回归模型,应用心理学研究领域的中介效应与调节效应检验方法,深入探讨了“保险+期货”试点对保护农户种粮积极性、保障国家粮食安全的作用机制。结果发现,“保险+期货”试点可以有效提高农户种粮积极性,发挥促进粮食生产、保障粮食安全的重要作用;农户未来参与试点意愿是参加试点与提高农户种粮积极性的中介变量,其间接影响占比为27.693%;政府补贴满意度在中介变量作用于农户种粮积极性的路径中具有调节效应,农户对政府补贴越满意,未来参与试点意愿对农户种粮积极性的正向影响越强。可以认为,现有农业补贴政策与“保险+期货”试点具有相互补充促进的关系,未来中国农业风险管理体系建设需注重“保险+期货”试点的长期可持续发展。

China’s agricultural supply has been on the tight side,and the fluctuation of domestic and foreign agricultural products market is increasing.The pilot project of“Insurance plus Futures”is a useful exploration for agricultural risk management in China and innovation can be witnessed in the field.This study uses a Logit regression model to carry out an empirical analysis and applies the test methods of mediating effect and moderating effect to probe deeply into the mechanism of the pilot project of“Insurance plus Futures"in promoting farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain and ensuring national food security.The results show that the pilot project of“Insurance plus Futures”can effectively improve farmers’enthusiasm for grain cultivation,which plays an important role in promoting food production and ensuring food security.Farmers’willingness to participate in the pilot project is an intermediary variable between participation in the pilot project and improving farmers’enthusiasm for grain cultivation,with an indirect impact of 27.693%.Farmers’satisfaction with government subsidies plays a moderating role,which means the higher the degree of farmers’satisfaction with government subsidies,the stronger the positive impact of willingness to participate in the pilot project on farmers’enthusiasm for grain cultivation in the future.It can be concluded that the existing agricultural subsidy policy and the pilot project of“Insurance plus Futures”model are complementary.In the future,attention needs to be paid to the long-term sustainable development of“Insurance plus Futures”in the construction of China’s agricultural risk management system.