县城炒房是否损害了中小微企业的盈利能力——基于江苏省县域中小微企业数据的实证分析

Property Speculation in County-level Cities and the Profitability of Local Small and Medium-sized Enterprises:Evidence from a Survey Data in Jiangsu Province

县城的房地产炒作行为加剧了县域中小微企业的生存困境。本文使用2014~2016年间江苏省2971家县域中小微企业的追踪调查面板数据,研究了县城房地产炒作对当地中小微企业利润率的影响。使用工具变量法控制了潜在的内生性问题后,本文发现:江苏省县城商品房销售价格每上涨1%,平均会导致当地中小微企业的利润率萎缩2.50%。基于Sobel中介因子模型的路径机制检验结果则显示:县城房地产炒作主要是通过抬高当地企业的劳动成本和融资成本两条路径,侵占了企业的经营利润,且劳动成本路径的中介效应占比更高。本文建议各地方政府严控县域经济的房地产泡沫化风险,综合使用金融、财政和房地产市场的行政管制等政策工具,重新将资本和劳动要素引回实体经济,唤醒县域中小微实体企业的活力。

The real estate speculation in county-level cities has aggravated the survival plight of small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)in China’s rural areas.This article uses the panel data collected from 2971 SMEs in counties of Jiangsu Province from 2014 to 2016 and analyzes the impact of housing price appreciation on the profit margin of rural SMEs.After controlling the potential endogenous problems with the instrumental variable(IV)method,the study finds that every 1%of increase in housing price in county-level cities of Jiangsu Province can lead to an average shrinkage of 2.50%in the profit margin of local SMEs.The results of path mechanism test based on the Sobel intermediary factor model show that the real estate hype boom in county-level cities of Jiangsu Province damaged local SMEs’profitability mainly through an increase in labor cost and financing cost of local enterprises,with the increase in labor cost being relatively more important.In conclusion,this study suggests that the Chinese government strictly regulate the real estate market order in small and medium-sized cities to control the risk of the real estate bubble.Local governments should guide the capital and labor factors back to the real economy,and arouse the vitality of SMEs by comprehensively using the monetary,fiscal and administrative policy tools.