种植业碳源、碳汇测算与净碳汇影响因素动态分析:山东例证

Estimation of Carbon Source and Carbon Sequestration in Planting Industry and Dynamic Analysis of Influencing Factors of Net Carbon Sequestration: A Case Study of Shandong Province

本文选取山东省1990~2016年的种植业数据,测算了山东省种植业碳源、碳汇、单位面积碳汇量、净碳汇量。基于VECM动态模型,分析了影响净碳汇的因素。结果表明:种植业经济发展水平、农产品出口依存度与有效灌溉面积率,对净碳汇存在长期均衡正向影响;财政支持力度对净碳汇存在短期的正向影响。研究表明,发展经济、优化对外贸易、提升科学灌溉技术水平与提高财政资金使用有效性等手段可以有效促进种植业减排增汇。

Based on the planting data of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2016,the carbon source,carbon sink,carbon sink per unit area and net carbon sink of planting industry in Shandong Province were calculated.Based on VECM dynamic model,the factors affecting net carbon sequestration are analyzed.The results showed that the economic development level of planting industry,the dependence degree of agricultural exports and the effective irrigation area ratio had a long-term positive impact on net carbon sink and a short-term positive impact on financial support.The results show that the development of economy,optimization of foreign trade,upgrading of scientific irrigation technology and improving the effectiveness of the use of financial funds can effectively promote the reduction of emissions and increase foreign exchange of planting industry in Shandong Province.