多介质环境模型New Equilibrium Criterion(New EQC)参数敏感性分析

The sensitivity analysis of parameters of New Equilibrium Criterion (New EQC) model

多介质环境模型被广泛应用于化学品环境风险评估.模型参数敏感性分析是使用模型时必不可少的环节,也是了解模型结构的有效途径之一.模型参数敏感性分析可筛选出对模型预测结果具有显著影响的化学品物化参数和环境参数,有助于减少数据收集工作量,能侧重收集所要评估区域关键的环境参数和实际环境条件下的物化参数值,从而提高模型预测结果的可信度,为化学品管理决策提供准确数据.本研究以化学物质八甲基环四硅氧烷为例,采用局部敏感性分析法中的一次一个变量法和全局敏感性分析法中的回归分析法,分别对多介质环境模型New Equilibrium Criterion模型参数进行了敏感性分析.结果表明,亨利常数、LevelⅢ向空气排放率和沉积物沉积速率等参数值的变化对模型预测结果影响显著.

Multi-media environment models are widely used for chemical environmental risk assessment.The sensitivity analysis of model parameters is essential for the use of models and effective for understanding the model structure.By means of sensitivity analysis,physicochemical parameters of target chemicals and environmental parameters with significant impact on the model prediction results can be screened out.It can improve the reliability of predicted results and provide accurate data for chemical management decision by decreasing aimless collection of parameters and allowing users to gather data of key environmental parameters in particular region and chemical properties parameters.one variable-at-a-time approach and regression analysis were used for the sensitivity analysis of New Equilibrium Criterion model parameters using octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane as the target chemical.The results showed that the changes of the values of Henry′s constant,Level Ⅲ air discharge rate and sediment deposition rate had significant influence on the prediction.