基于循环修正模型的城市综合灾害风险评估

Urban Comprehensive Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Cyclic Correction Model

针对城市综合灾害风险评估要素复杂而单一方法评估结果不一致的难点问题,以灾害危险性、经济易损性和社会易损性为准则构建区域综合灾害风险评价指标体系,引入组合化评价思想对模糊数随机模拟、加权求和、集对分析3种单一方法评价结果进行组合评价,并以Spearman等级相关系数为检验标准,反复迭代构建出基于循环修正模式的组合评价模型。最后,通过我国31个省市自治区自然灾害风险的实例验证,表明了该组合方法的高度科学性和可信性。

Aiming at the difficult problem of complex and single method evaluation results in urban comprehensive disaster risk assessment, the regional comprehensive disaster risk assessment index system is constructed based on the criteria of disaster risk, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability, and then the combined evaluation idea is introduced. The three single method evaluation results of fuzzy number random simulation, weighted summation and set pair analysis are combined and evaluated. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient is used as the test standard, and iteratively constructs a combination evaluation model based on cyclic correction mode. Finally, the example verification of natural disaster risk in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China shows that the combination method is highly scientific and credible.