基于全流程视角的我国海外原油供应链安全的双维度评价研究

The Two-Dimensions Evaluation of the Safety of Chinese Overseas Crude Oil Supply Chain from the Perspective of All-flows

在工业化与城镇化的进程中,原油具有举足轻重的作用,而我国长期居高不下的原油对外依存度,使国家、企业和普通消费者不得不重视我国海外原油供应链安全。鉴于此,在归纳总结我国海外原油供应链网络的基础上采用熵权法,基于全流程视角构建我国海外原油供应链评价指标体系,并运用灰色关联对我国海外原油供应链的安全进行评价。评价结果在时间和空间双维度上表明:(1)原油贸易是买方市场,买方对原油贸易的影响力是卖方影响力的1.094倍;(2)我国海外原油供应链安全绩效与国际原油价格发展趋势基本吻合,吻合度为0.734;(3)近十年,我国海外原油供应链的安全进程可划分为三阶段和两节点;(4)俄罗斯—中国是安全性最高的单元供应链,中东—中国是关键供应链。

Crude oil plays an important role in the process of industrialization and urbanization. China s high dependence on overseas crude oil for a long time makes the whole nation, enterprises and ordinary consumers pay enough attention to the safety of China s overseas crude oil supply chain. Therefore, on the basis of summarizing and specifying China s overseas crude oil supply chain network, China s evaluation index system of overseas crude oil supply chain is constructed by using the entropy technology from the perspective of the whole process. China s overseas crude oil supply chain is evaluatedby using grey model and the results in both time and space dimensions are as follows:(1) The purchasers have more advantages than the vendors, and the ratio to overseas crude oil between the purchaser and vender is 1.094.(2) The safety performance of China s overseas crude oil supply chain accords with the change of international price of crude oil and their fitting value is 0.734.(3) The process of crude oil s safety of the past ten years should be divided into 3 phase and 2 time-points.(4) The one from Russia to China is the safest routine, while the one from Middle East to China is the most critical routine.The research results in this article accord with the actual situations of China s overseas crude oil supply chain. The methods and data can be used to further predict the safety trends of China overseas crude oil supply chain and explore the functions and mechanism of crude oil supply chain.