摘要
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society.Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the international climate negotiations.For solar radiation management with the most controversy in climate engineering method,based on two scenarios of climate engineering (G4) and non climate engineering (RCP4.5) of BNU-ESM model,95% and 99% percentiles of daily rainfall data during 2010-2099 were taken as thresholds of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall events.The data of over threshold sampling (POT) were fitted by Weibull distribution to diagnose the heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in 10,20,50 and 100 years of return period.The results showed that:in two scenarios,strength of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall enhanced with return period increased,and they showed a southeast high-northwest low spatial characteristics.Climate engineering,in general,contributes to the increase in heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in China,as well as spatial heterogeneity,which represents the suppression of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in parts of the country.This research is of great significance for the future global climate control and regional climate adaptation.
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society. Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the international climate negotiations. For solar radiation management with the most controversy in climate engineering method,based on two scenarios of climate engineering( G4) and non climate engineering( RCP4. 5)of BNU-ESM model,95% and 99% percentiles of daily rainfall data during 2010-2099 were taken as thresholds of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall events. The data of over threshold sampling( POT) were fitted by Weibull distribution to diagnose the heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in 10,20,50 and 100 years of return period. The results showed that: in two scenarios,strength of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall enhanced with return period increased,and they showed a southeast high-northwest low spatial characteristics. Climate engineering,in general,contributes to the increase in heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in China,as well as spatial heterogeneity,which represents the suppression of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in parts of the country. This research is of great significance for the future global climate control and regional climate adaptation.
基金
Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2018YFC0806900)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,71790611)
the Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
