人口流动对人口老龄化的区域影响——基于两广的对比分析

Regional Impact of Population Flow on Population Ageing: A Comparative Analysis between Guangdong and Guangxi

人口的大规模流动造成了两广人口年龄结构不平衡的现状。按包含流动人口和不包含流动人口两种统计口径计算发现,广东户籍老年人口比例大于常住老年人口比例,而广西则正好相反,且两广户籍人口老龄化程度相似;进一步利用人口老龄化模型对两广2015年数据进行考察,研究发现流动人口使广东人口老龄化的速度减缓0.3683岁/年,广西由于流出人口多于流入人口使得平均年龄增长率提高0.3283岁/年。广西应加速产业转型升级,适当提高生育率并进一步完善养老保障体系等。

The large-scale population flow has resulted in an imbalance in age structure in Guangdong and Guangxi. This paper, based on an analysis of the impact of floating population on the population ageing in the two provinces, draws a conclusion that the proportion of the elderly population with household registration in Guangdong is larger than that of the elderly population with permanent residence, while the case in Guangxi is just the opposite;and the degree of ageing for registered populations is similar. Furthermore, a study of the data of the two provinces in 2015 with adoption of the model of population ageing reveals that the floating population slowed down the ageing rate of Guangdong population by 0.3683 years per year, while the same number in Guangxi increased by 0.3283 years per year due to its bigger outflow. In this regard, it is proposed that Guangxi should speed up industrial transformation and upgrading, properly improve the fertility rate and further improve the old-age security system.