摘要
2017年8月15日,台湾岛内发生18年以来最严重的停电事故,其背后的实际原因是电力短缺。本文在研究台湾电力供需现状的基础上,通过构建电力需求的非线性模型预测未来的电力需求,分析台湾未来可能面临的电力供需矛盾。在此基础上,结合台湾的电力短缺事故分析当前台湾能源政策对电力短缺的影响。结果表明,台湾未来将面临严峻的电力供需形势,且电力供需缺口将持续至2026年。因此,制定能源政策应考虑“电力先行”的发展战略,并遵循专业科学的原则统筹规划,以保证稳定性和持续性。
On August 15 2017 the most serious power failure in recent 18 years occurred in Taiwan due to the power shortage.Based on the analysis of current situation of power supply and demand in Taiwan this paper makes a forecast of its future electricity demand and analyses the contradiction between power supply and demand that it might face as well in the future by constructing nonlinear model of power demand.On this basis the paper also makes a detailed analysis of the influ ence of Taiwan current energy policies on power shortage and its enlightenment in view of the accidents that occurred due to its power shortage.The findings show that Taiwan will be faced with a serious situation of power supply and demand which may last till 2026.Therefore the development strategy of the “electric power first” should be the first consideration in formu lating their energy program and at the same time the overall planning be made by following the principle of professional sci ence so as to ensure their stability and continuity.
作者
杨芳
何晓萍
Yang Fang;He Xiaoping
出处
《台湾研究集刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期40-51,共12页
Taiwan Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“包容性增长视角下的‘一带一路’能源基础设施投资研究:宏观经济影响及动态优化布局”(71704148)
国家自然科学基金项目“居民家庭绿色低碳行为研究”(71573217)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助“低碳约束下能源基础设施的宏观经济影响及区域布局研究”(2018T110641)
关键词
电力短缺
电力需求预测
能源转型
power shortage
power demand forecast
energy transition
