中国城市居民电量消费存在回弹效应吗?

Are There Any Rebound Effects in China’s Urban Residential Electricity Consumption?

基于2008-2015年29个省会城市及直辖市的面板数据,对城市居民用电消费的影响因素及回弹效应进行了研究,探讨了东、中、西部不同区域的回弹规模及回弹类别.结果显示:电价对城市居民用电量具有负向影响,城市人口规模、降水量以及降温度日则对居民能源消耗均有积极作用;从全国来看,中国城市居民用电消费存在回弹效应,技术进步带来的能源节约量的70%被抵消;分区域来看,东部城市居民用电回弹效应不显著,中、西部城市出现回弹效应中的“回火”现象,而回火效应的存在,使得政府在制定中、西部节能政策时需要更为谨慎,避免出现部分节能举措反而增加能耗的现象。

Based on the panel data of 29 provincial capital cities from 2008 to 2015, this paper discussed the influencing factors of China’s residential electricity consumption in urban areas and estimates the energy rebound effect. This paper also explored the scale and category of rebound effects in the eastern, central and western regions, respectively. The results show that, firstly, the electricity price has a negative impact on China’s urban residential electricity consumption, while urban population, rainfall and cooling degree day have a positive effect. Secondly, the rebound effect of China’s urban residential electricity consumption is approximately 70%, which implies that 70% of the energy conservation caused by technological progress is offset. Thirdly, the rebound effects of the eastern, central and western regions are different. In the eastern region, the rebound effect is not significant, while there are "backfire effects" in the central and western regions. In order to avoid the energy consumption increase caused by energy-saving measures, Chinese government should be more cautious when formulating energy-saving policies in the central and western regions.