货币供应与价格波动——兼论投资的中介作用

Monetary Supply and Price Fluctuation:The Study on Media Mechanism of Investment

稳定物价是中国货币政策的一个最终目标,实现这一目标的一个中间途径是稳定货币供应量。然而,货币供应量与物价波动之间的关系并非如此简单, 21 世纪以来,中国货币供应量大幅增长,但物价水平却较为稳定,从而引发“中国之谜”的讨论以及对于未来通货膨胀的担心。在中国经济增长长期依赖投资扩张的大背景下,投资的中介作用不应被忽视。笔者利用 1996 年 1 月至2017 年 10 月期间的宏观月度数据,采用协整分析、误差纠正模型和脉冲响应分析了投资波动、货币供应量和物价变动之间的关系和影响机制,认为三者之间存在长期稳定的关系,货币供应量的增加短期推高了价格水平,而长期则有助于稳定价格水平,固定资产投资的变动起着中介作用,货币供应量与固定资产投资变动之间的密切关系是促成物价变动的关键所在,这种机制也有助于解释“中国之谜”。因此,从稳定物价水平的角度来看,应着眼于稳定固定资产投资规模的增长,避免大起大落,此外,还应避免货币供应对固定资产投资的过度适应。 M1 作为中央银行的货币政策中介目标依然具有很好的理论基础。

Stabilizing price level is one of the ultimate goals of China's monetary policy. In order to at tain this goal, it is necessary to stabilize monetary supply as an intermediate channel. However, relationship between monetary supply and price level is not as simple as we may think of. Since the beginning of new cen tury, China s monetary supply has increased dramatically, meanwhile, the price level is considerably stable, which caused dispute on “China's enigma” and worry about future inflation. As China's economy has been longly depended on expansion of investment, the intermediate effect of investment on relationship between mo netary supply and price level should not be ignored. Using macro monthly data from January, 1996 to Octor ber, 2017, with co integration framework and error correction model, the author analyzed relationship and mechanism among invest fluctuation, monetary supply change and price fluctuation. The results show there is a steady relationship among those three variables. Change of monetary supply distinctively affects fluctuation of price, while fluctuation of investment acts as an accelerator. Moreover, the close relationship between mo netary supply change and investment fluctuation is the key to price fluctuation, which also explained “China's enigma”. Thus, from the point of price stabilization, attention should be paid on controlling investment scale growth so as avoiding big fluctuation. Besides, focus should also be put on avoiding over adaption of monetary supply to investment growth. There is a solid theoretical foundation for M1 as the intermediate target of mone tary policy for central bank.